Friday, September 07, 2007

Surely, there can't be that many Tory seats left up north?

Election Results: Thursday 6th September 2007.

City of York UA, Heworth Without

LD Nigel Ayre 914 (46.7; +11.0), Con 703 (35.9; -1.8), Lab 219 (11.2; -5.8), BNP 63 (3.2; +3.2), Green 58 (3.0; -1.4), [Liberal (0.0; -5.2)].

Majority 211. Turnout 61.8%. LD gain from Con. Last fought 2007.


There seems to be a pattern emerging here! I may be wrong? What I find remarkable is the turnout at almost 62%. It is often said that the Liberal Democrats usually win By-Elections on low turnouts. Well, how does one explain this one? Equally interesting to note is the collapse of the Labour Party vote by -5.8% in an area where you would expect Labour to be gaining ground on the back of a Brown Bounce!

- Richie Northcote
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3 comments:

  1. Anonymous8/9/07 02:10

    Though this is promising, I think it might be a bit exaggerating to say that there is a pattern on grounds of two local by-elections.

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  2. Aberavon and Neath Liberal Democrats10/9/07 12:25

    The underlying pattern is of "not much happening". Few seats are changing hands at local by-elections, which must be worrying for the Conservatives. If they really were on the surge that the newspaper opinion polls purport, the Tories would be making far more gains at the local level. They should certainly not be losing any wards.

    - Frank Little

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  3. Aberavon and Neath Liberal Democrats12/9/07 11:45

    But another LD gain from the Conservatives has just come in:

    Chelmsford BC - Broomfield and Writtle
    Tuesday 11th September

    Malcolm Taylor Lib Dem 1198
    Tory 742
    Lab 76
    UKIP 57
    Green 53

    Lib Dem gain from Tory

    (Saffron Walden constituency)

    ReplyDelete