Friday, November 07, 2008


A bad result for us, but for once the media got it right in hailing it as a victory for Gordon Brown and a rebuff for the Nationalists. On the same day, there were by-elections in the big two Scottish cities: Edinburgh City, Forth ward, and Glasgow City, Baillieston. Both were won by Labour.

It is clearly a result of Brown's improved image in the wake of the bank rescue. This so-called "Brown bounce" will deflate as the job cuts (such as these) bite, and the voters take it out on the sitting government.

An old Scottish hand tells us: "I remember us getting about 2% in Glasgow Central and Glasgow Govan in 1989/90. We came back from that. Then we got 3% in Hamilton South and Falkirk West in 1999/2000. Five years later we were coming 2nd in Scotland, with 24% of the vote. It's not nice to get such results, but it doesn't worry me greatly, long-term."
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